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Measuring the Extent of the Fall Recovery

Each year the market recovers from the Summer doldrums in the Fall, peaking once again in either October or November. On two occasions, the Fall peak was the height of the market for the entire year. 

If we discount the Summer doldrums, what percentage was the recovery. What percentage is the Fall peak of the Spring peak?

Let’s look back over the last few years and measure the actual extent of the recovery. This is the percentage of the Fall peak of the Spring peak:

2004…..99.60%

2005…..98.84%

2006…..97.20% 

2007…..101.77%

2008…..92.45%

2009…..104.85%

2010…..99.36%

2011…..98.95%

2012…..97.60%

Actually, the recovery each year falls within a range 92.45% to 104.85%.

The average recovery was 98.96%

When you look at it, there was really only one bad year, and that was 2008. However, you remember that there was a worldwide stock market crash in October 2008 when the markets lost over one half of their values. So, that seems to be a reasonable explanation!

This means, of course, that most of the time, the market is coming back in the Fall. The Fall pricing is very close indeed to the Spring peaks. This confirmation of pricing carries through to the next year, which is the beginning of a new upward trend.

Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker is a Manager at  RE/MAX West Realty Inc., Brokerage 416-745-2300.
www.OntarioRealEstateSource.com

 

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